Within just minutes of the New Hampshire primary being called for former President Donald Trump, Nikki Haley emerged onto the stage at her election watch party, where she declared that she wasn’t going to drop out. “New Hampshire is the first in the nation; Not the last.” She declared to an audience of fired up supporters.
Haley has always been an underdog in her races. Despite not receiving nay support from her party in the early 2000s, she managed to unseat the longest serving Republican incumbent in the South Carolina legislature. In 2010, she beat out a Lieutenant Governor, an Attorney General, and Congressman to become the nominee for Governor, even though she was a little known State Rep. with barely any name recognition. She is once again an underdog, and she is attempting to use the same playbook, but many wonder if it will work this time.
Tuesday night wasn’t the night Governor Haley was hoping for. In the run up to Tuesday’s primary, she was being lauded as Trump’s most credible Republican challenger yet. Polling showed within “a stone’s throw” of the former President, rivaling him by coming within just 10 points of him at times. It’s important to contextualize the fact that Trump had been leading in the national polls by nearly 40 points. That combined with Haley slowly rising up through the polls with some nice momentum behind her, actually did make this victory somewhat impressive.
However, as the numbers show for themselves, Nikki Haley lost two state contests in a row, and the next few states don’t look particularly hospitable. New Hampshire was her best shot at winning any state, since the state’s large independent, “undeclared” voter base comprises 40% of the voting electorate, and generally split for her. The road ahead is going to be very daunting for her, without a doubt. In her home state, where she is arguably known the best, and was a two term governor, she polls at just 25% to Trump’s 60%. The State’s Governor, her former Lieutenant Governor, and its two senators, one of whom (Tim Scott), she appointed, all endorsed former President Trump.
Haley has a very large deficit to cover in her home state, and a loss would be politically humiliating, but it seems rather imminent. Even if there is a month, the South Carolina electorate is far more conservative and sympathetic to the MAGA cause. Trump has statewide support.
Yet Haley is continuing on; and Trump hates it. Unlike previous primary cycles, when candidates like Kamala Harris, and Marco Rubio dropped out either before or upon losing their home states, this time there is a true civil war in the Republican party. Some are going to argue that Nikki Haley only received 43% of the vote in New Hampshire, but she has cleverly spun it as Donald Trump failing to win 43% of his party’s support. It’s a smart move on Haley’s part. Despite being a nominee twice, and commanding in internal politics of the Republican party with an iron fist, the fact is that in both Iowa and New Hampshire, nearly half of Republican voters preferred not Donald Trump. Haley wants to capitalize on that. He’s also hemorrhaging his support among independents by repeatedly taking more extreme positions on issues, which propels Haley’s position as the clear Republican alternative.
She vowed to stay in the race, and continue on. “New Hampshire is first in the nation; it is not last in the nation,” she declared, “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go. And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.” She understands that there’s no path for her to win the nomination, so her strategy seems to be to set herself up as the de facto Republican resistance movement to Donald Trump. There will be a day when Donald Trump doesn’t run for president. Without a clear heir to the throne, and every alternative far less appealing to the MAGA base, Haley hopes to lead a united take back of the party. Her wishful thinking is that it happens this year, but it’ll more likely take place in 2028.
But between now and 2028, there is the South Carolina primary and the one month until it. For these next few weeks, Haley will endure the very worst of the former President’s attacks. As the most credible challenger to his hold, Trump simply can’t focus on Biden, he must campaign against Haley until she drops out. But as long as Haley keeps getting money (like her reported Wall Street fundraiser on Tuesday, and subsequent ones in San Francisco and Miami), she has no reason to leave. Trump will resort to alienating Haley and her supporters, she will face tough political pushback, and will watch as the party unites around her opponent. But her defiance to quit will demonstrate to Trump, and his voters that she won’t go down without a fight.