The 2024 Iowa caucus will go down in history as one of the most interesting. As the results came in former President Donald Trump has, as expected, beat all his rivals with a commanding 51% lead. Ron DeSantis’s campaign got saved with a second place finish, but still trailing the former president by double digits. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley had some false momentum going into this race but her close third place finish does still cement herself as a strong competitor for second place. Lastly, the Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed former president Donald Trump. Here’s a look at the historic night that was the 2024 Iowa Caucuses.
Ron DeSantis’s Relevance Problem
After last night’s results, one thing is clear: DeSantis had the lowest return on investment. Even though he was able to eek out a second place finish, it wasn’t remarkable, it only keeps him above the water. A third place finish would have ended DeSantis’s campaign, but the fact that he was able to barely get second place shows just how risky it looks going forward, owing to the fact he spent the most money in Iowa. With just 5% in the polls, he isn’t particularly strong in New Hampshire. It isn’t very clear what his path forward looks like from here. He has indicated that he will be focusing a lot more effort in South Carolina, Nikki Haley’s home state, while skipping New Hampshire. It’s a strategic move, but after his second place finish in Iowa, he is trying to make the case that he is still a viable candidate. He has a lot of ground to make up in South Carolina, so this next month will be crucial for his campaign.
Nikki Haley: The Pressure is on
Going into Iowa, Nikki got a bit of 11th hour momentum thanks to an NBC News/Des Moines register poll, which set expectations very high. The poll, which is considered to be the gold standard of polling in Iowa, showed Haley beating DeSantis with 20% of the vote to his 16%. When we got the results for the race, it painted a different picture. Donald Trump outperformed the poll by 3 points, DeSantis beat it by 5 points, meanwhile Nikki Haley underperformed by 1 point. It’s not all that surprising, since she didn’t have a very strong ground game in the state, and neither did she focus most of her money here like DeSantis did. Following the election calls, Haley boldly declared a 2 person race between herself and Donald Trump. If she wants that to actually be the case, she must have a convincingly strong performance in New Hampshire next Tuesday, which would help her into South Carolina. In New Hampshire, a strong second place finish is her only path forward. While she has been polling around 10 points behind former President Donald Trump, Chris Christie dropping out, has given her an appreciated boost in her numbers. However, news of Ramaswamy dropping out doesn’t help, as that 3-4% will go straight to him. Haley must carve herself a strong second place finish next Tuesday.
Donald Trump breaks politics again
“The Donald” has once again done what he does best: upend everyone’s expectations, and continue a firm grasp over the party he now very much directs and controls. Trump managed to make history as the votes were counted, for earning the highest vote share in Iowa caucus memory. Despite freezing cold temperatures, and quite a few members of the Iowa GOP establishment (including Governor Kim Reynolds) turning on him, he was able to command a 30 point margin over DeSantis. In the last few days, with some additional endorsements, and Vivek Ramaswamy dropping out, Trump has some appreciated momentum behind him going into every other race after the Iowa caucuses. The consolidation of support only serves him, as demonstrates himself as the clear front runner in the race, not to be messed with. His seemingly gracious comments about Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis show how little he actually cares about either, and the fact that he, more than anyone else, believes the other candidates don’t matter. Whatever your view of him may be, the fact is that he, without a doubt owns the Republican party, and has a very strong base of support propelling him through this. The only major test ahead of him seems to be New Hampshire but that is only a test if Nikki Haley can give him a real run for his money.