Republicans in recent months have been jockeying to lay the groundwork for the 2024 Presidential election amid President Biden’s struggles with issues like inflation, soaring gas prices, foreign policy crises in Afghanistan and Ukraine among others. All of that comes as President Biden tackles some of the worst approval ratings of his presidency so far.
Former President Donald Trump has made ever indication that he intends on running for President a third time in 2024. However, as it has become easier to take on President Biden, more and more Republicans are also indicating their interest in running in 2024. Some of these candidates have been making convenient trips to early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Others have been silently trying to rebuke the GOP leader, while others have been more intentionally critical of him.
This list includes Trump administration alumni, Governors and other leaders who have at least expressed some interest in running. However, all of these candidates still face an uphill against Trump.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis has consistently been rated as the most likely Republican to run. The Governor is adored by the right and has made himself a household name for his conservative policies. He was praised by conservative voters for resisting mask and vaccine mandates in his state. He took on the culture wars through various divisive policies, including the recent “Don’t Say Gay” bill.
DeSantis is Donald Trump’s biggest competition according to most polls. A recent University of New Hampshire survey suggested that DeSantis could beat Trump in a Republican primary with 39% of the vote compared to Trump’s 37%. DeSantis also possesses the crucial skill of fundraising. Recent numbers show the Governor has managed to raise a staggering $100 million for his reelection campaign. His numbers are an example of his influence among Republican donors, and his standing with voters.
DeSantis also hails from the crucial swing state of Florida, where he has won before. Florida has been shifting increasingly towards the right in recent years, however it is in an emerging electoral battleground region of the United States; the South. DeSantis’ appeal among Republican voters in this region could help in states like Georgia and North Carolina.
DeSantis has been very dismissive of 2024 speculation about himself. He has routinely told people that he is focused on his reelection campaign for November. But with a campaign chest and polling numbers as good as his, DeSantis is the Republican to watch for 2024.
South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem
Kristi Noem is a Governor who has come to embrace the culture wars as a brand as it becomes more and more fashionable for politicians on both sides to take them on.
Noem has championed various Republican issues including gun rights, prayer in schools, banning transgender women and girls from participating in women’s sports, and prohibiting critical race theory from being taught in schools. She has bashed the Biden administration over several issues including recent inflation, the invasion of Ukraine, the crisis at the Southern border among other things.
The South Dakota Governor has sought to lay the groundwork for a 2024 run in recent weeks, including creating her federal political action committee (PAC) Noem Victory fund. She also released a national ad introducing herself to a national audience, an indication of her national ambitions.
In a recent interview, Noem has already said that she would support former President Donald Trump a third time. She has been floated as a potential cabinet secretary or running mate pick. However when asked about being Trump’s running mate, she said she would be “shocked” if Trump asked her. Supporters and critics of Noem have warned people against counting Noem out as a serious contender for federal office.
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley
Former ambassador Nikki Haley has been widely reported to be eyeing the White House. Ambassador Haley has repeatedly visited the crucial early caucus state of Iowa, fueling speculation of a Presidential run.
Haley has been more sober in her support of President Trump. She criticized Trump in the aftermath of the January 6th riots. At an RNC dinner, she said “It wasn’t just his words. His actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history”. Haley has since cleared herself, and said that she would support Trump if he ran.
Haley and Trump have still found each other on opposing sides from time to time. The most recent instance was in South Carolina early last month when each backed opposing candidates in a heated Republican primary in the state. People close with Haley and Trump have said the two still maintain “a good relationship.”
Haley has attended various dinners and fundraisers, and has been a frequent Fox News guest where she has berated President Joe Biden over his handling of key midterm issues. Haley also has the benefit of coming from the early primary state of South Carolina and the key battleground region of the South. In addition to that, Haley has domestic experience as a state legislator, and as Governor of South Carolina. She holds foreign policy credentials as Donald Trump’s first United Nations ambassador. Her combination of experience on multiple levels of government, and political smarts make her a formidable opponent in a primary.
Representative Liz Cheney
Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming is unlikely to make many of these types of lists, however she has made a name for herself in American politics as one of Donald Trump’s most fiercest critics in the Republican party. She has repeatedly rejected Trump’s claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election, calling it the “big lie” and has criticized the former President over his handling of the January 6th riots.
Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, was one of Trump’s most ardent supporters in the House, voting with him over 90% of the time. She was also the number three house Republican, but was ousted from her role after a no confidence vote was held against her by her party in May of 2021. She was replaced with Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Since then she has taken the role of Vice Chair of the House January 6th committee, and continues her criticism of Trump. She, along with fellow Jan. 6th committee Republican Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), were recently censured by the Republican National committee for rejecting Trump’s claims about the 2020 election.
Despite Cheney’s near-universal unpopularity in the Republican party, she stands as the leader of the anti-Trump wing of the Republican party. In an interview Cheney remarked that she has not yet ruled out a 2024 bid, she said “I haven’t made a decision about that yet. I’m obviously very focused on my reelection. I’m very focused on the January 6th committee. I’m very focused on my obligations to do the job that I have now.” Cheney currently faces a tough reelection battle in her home state of Wyoming where Trump has backed her primary opponent, who is leading in the polls. Cheney’s viability for a 2024 primary remains contingent on her reelection bid for the House which will happen in August.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott
Governor Greg Abbott of Texas is one of the most recognizable politicians in the country. He’s made a name for himself as one of the Biden administration’s biggest challengers.
Abbott has been especially critical of the Biden administration’s handling of the Southern border crisis, which has been in the spotlight in his home state of Texas. The Governor recently authorized Texan law enforcement to arrest migrants and send them back to the border, directly rebuking Biden, whom he has accused of not doing enough to address the crisis.
Like many other Republican politicians, Abbott has also taken a firm stance on various other issues in his state including abortion, voting access, gun rights, managing the Southern border among other things. His management of these policies, and his criticism of Biden on those issues have brought him to the national stage.
Abbott was also recently in the headlines following the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas where 19 students and two teachers were killed. Abbott’s handling of the crisis in the state has produced somewhat polarizing results, however Abbott has pledged to address discrepancies he believed caused the shooting.
Being the Governor of the biggest red state in the country brings plenty of support, name recognition, and media attention, three crucial assets that any Presidential candidate needs to succeed. Abbott is currently running for reelection against former U.S. representative Beto O’Rourke.
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan
Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland was one of the earliest critics of Donald Trump’s takeover of the Republican party. When asked about the possibility of a Trump 2024 bid, Hogan said “I’m hopeful that Donald Trump won’t be running and won’t be the nominee if he does run.”
Hogan has been widely speculated to be mulling a 2024 bid. When asked about his Presidential ambitions, Hogan tends to suggest that he’ll only take a look at it after his term is up in January. In a recent Meet the Press Interview, Hogan said “I’ve seen nothing that would dissuade me from thinking there’s a growing demand for exactly what we’ve done in Maryland over the last eight years.”
Hogan has also warned his fellow GOP colleagues that a third Trump run could tank the party’s chances at winning in 2024. His status as a leader of the Anti-Trump wing of the GOP, make him one of the most likely candidates to run, regardless of what Trump decides to do.
Former Vice President Mike Pence
Former Vice President Mike Pence was once seen as the heir apparent of Donald Trump to the Republican mantle. He wielded considerable influence in the Trump White House, and was reported to be slowly building a network for a Presidential bid. But following the January 6th riots, and Pence’s refusal to decertify the 2020 election, Pence’s clout quickly eroded.
Despite his unpopularity in the party, Pence has been carefully setting up a Presidential bid. The former Vice President, like other early hopefuls, has been visiting various early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire, and has also been playing an active role in Republican primaries, where President Trump is kingmaker. Like Nikki Haley, Pence has also endorsed some Trump foes including Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia, whose primary opponent was endorsed by Trump. Kemp ended up winning his primary in May and will now face off against Stacey Abrams in November. Pence’s endorsements have been seen by some as facilitating an intentional proxy war within the GOP between MAGA and anti-Trump candidates.
Pence has also come after the Biden administration on a multitude of things, especially rapidly increasing inflation. In a speech to the University Club of Chicago, Pence said “The truth is America is facing a growing economic crisis that’s unlike any other in our country’s 244-year history. Inflation is rampant, gas and food prices are rising, real wages are falling, the stock market is plummeting.”
Pence also recently entered national headlines over his role on January 6th, 2021. Pence was constitutionally obligated to preside over the joint session of Congress which was responsible for certifying the 2020 Presidential election. After a violent mob of Trump supporters rioted at the Capitol, Pence went against his former boss’ wishes and certified the 2020 election for President Joe Biden. The House January 6th committee’s investigation has examined the extent to which Pence was pressured by Trump allies to decertify the results, and has reported that Pence faced significant constraint in decertifying the election.
Pence has been carefully working to navigate the waters of the Republican party to find his place. He’s walking on a very thin rope as he balances both his decision to certify the 2020 election for Joe Biden while also trying to win over the Trump base that he has lost. The January 6th committee’s hearings seem to be doing at least some of that work, however when all is said and done, Pence still finds himself as the most challenged candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination.