The Democratic party is confused right now. What is going wrong with President Joe Biden? The President is experiencing the worst approval ratings of his term at just 33%. The country is experiencing widespread inflation and foreign policy crises, and a staggering 64% of Democrats say they would prefer another Democrat to lead the party in 2024. All of these challenges have put Biden’s political future in serious doubt as three-fourth’s of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Despite that, President Biden has made it clear that it is his intention to run for a second term in 2024. Biden has privately told aides that he is displeased with the skepticism about his future and see it as “a lack of respect from their party and the press” But with consistent doubts from people within his own party, a serious question is beginning to arise; Is there a plan B?
All of this comes as Donald Trump continues to dominate the 2024 Republican primary. Joe Biden is the only person to have ever beat Donald Trump, which makes the selection of a replacement all the more complicated. This list contains Biden administration officials, prominent members of Congress, statewide elected officials among others, who are the most likely to run for President in 2024, if Biden doesn’t.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
The midwest is arguably the most important electoral battleground in Presidential politics, especially for Democrats who are slowly losing grip of the region. Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan has a proven record in the region, winning her current job by a 10 point margin, just two years after Hillary Clinton lost this state by less than a percentage point.
Whitmer gained national prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic for her handling of the crisis in her home state. Her policies were polarizing to say the least in the deeply divided state.
Whitmer understands the scrutiny of politics better than most of her colleagues on both sides. Her policies garnered sharp criticism from Republicans and praise from her fellow Democrats. The polarization reached immense heights when an extremist group plotted to kidnap her. Law enforcement uncovered the plot before anything happened, however the case went to show how divided her state was.
Whitmer’s saw her political stock increase substantially when she was a serious contender to be President Biden’s running mate in 2020. She had made it to the final round of vetting, but was ultimately beat out by Vice President Harris. The vetting process however, elevated her national profile and put her even further into the spotlight as someone who was closely considered for the coveted spot.
Whitmer has been seen as a 2024 favorite for her moderate politics, midwest roots as well as her appeal and name recognition within the Democratic party. Whitmer’s home state of Michigan give her an edge in 2024 for a nomination contest and election likely to be decided by swing voters.
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
Of all the people on either of these lists, Pete Buttigieg is arguably the most politically successful of all. Just three years ago, Buttigieg was a little known mayor from Indiana, who managed to reach 4th place in the 2020 Democratic primary for President. After dropping out, Buttigieg endorsed Biden. He was widely admired by the Democratic party for his successes and was considered as a potential running mate before Biden announced that he would pick a woman. Buttigieg’s loyalty and star power and helped him score his current job of Secretary of Transportation, and he also made history as the first openly LGBTQ Cabinet Secretary.
Buttigieg has managed to keep his name in the headlines thanks to his job overseeing President Biden’s infrastructure package. The expansive $1 trillion package gives Buttigieg the perfect excuse to tour around the country to brag about a key policy achievement without raising any eyebrows, something most other hopefuls do not get. Buttigieg is also the most popular member of the Biden administration, beating the likes of President Biden and Vice President Harris, another plus in an administration where approval ratings aren’t very high.
Buttigieg cannot deny his Presidential ambitions. Having seen so much success in his first Presidential campaign, it only makes sense that the thought is at least at the back of his head. He is also young (40 years old) which means that he potentially has multiple Presidential runs written into his future. Buttigieg is an important player to watch for cabinet promotions, statewide elected offices, and other roles.
California Governor Gavin Newsom
If Republicans have Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, then Democrats can call Governor Gavin Newsom of California their star Governor. He has begun to take over the national headlines in recent weeks as he embraces the culture wars that have come to define American politics today.
As a Governor during the COVID-19 pandemic, Newsom’s public health policies tended to be more strict in general which, like Gretchen Whitmer, garnered praise from Democrats and criticism from Republicans. Newsom faced criticism in 2020 for violating his own COVID rules, when he celebrated his birthday with more people than his administration’s guidance. This blunder allowed a recall petition against him to surge in popularity, and resulted in a recall election against him. Newsom handedly won the recall, however faced significant scrutiny during the campaign.
Newsom’s made more headlines recently for his more openly ambitious actions. He has been publicly sparring with Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL), another 2024 prospect, leading to several predictions of a Newsom-DeSantis matchup. Recently, Newsom released an attack ad against DeSantis. The move was unusual because unlike other politicians trying to introduce themselves to the country, Newsom’s ad was an attack ad directed at DeSantis, which fueled speculation of a 2024 run.
While Newsom has seen his popularity increase recently, one thing he might need to contend with is Vice President Kamala Harris, a friend and a fellow Californian, who many put at the top of their 2024 lists. Harris running, might be a deterrent for Newsom to run due to the potential clash in their voter rich home state of California which could split and benefit neither if both ran. While Newsom’s path through 2024 might be unclear right now, it will be important to watch where he goes from Governor of California.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
Illinois is a deep blue state, it’s also the state that produced famous Presidents like Abraham Lincoln, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. Governor JB Pritzker is another politician from Illinois who has seen his name recognition skyrocket since becoming Governor and leading his home state through fiscal policies, COVID, among other things.
Pritzker is a billionaire heir, whose family owns the worldwide hotel chain Hyatt. Pritzker first gained national attention after winning a crowded Democratic primary and then unseating the then Republican incumbent Bruce Rauner. In his time as Governor, Pritzker has implemented several Democrat wishlist policies including raising the state minimum wage, pushing for Climate Change policies, and promoting abortion rights.
Pritzker has faced less national exposure than most of his potential 2024 rivals, like Newsom and Buttigieg, however he has been making more aggressive moves in recent weeks. For starters, Pritzker has not ruled out a Presidential bid, but he says that he will support President Biden if he chooses to run in 2024. Pritzker has also been trying to lay the groundwork for a 2024 run by traveling to early voting states and swing states like Florida and New Hampshire, to tout his accomplishments as Governor.
Pritzker will struggle more than others in 2024 to get his name out there, but he has certainly been trying hard to boost his profile. Until then, Pritzker has said that he is focused on securing a second term as Governor this November.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren
In the 2020 Democratic primary, two clear factions emerged with their own leaders. On the moderate side were people like President Biden and Amy Klobuchaur. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren came out on top as leaders of the progressive wing of the party. Since dropping out of the race in the March of 2020, Warren has dominated the left wing of the party as it continues to push President Biden to be more aggressive on issues like climate change, student loans, and social issues.
While Bernie Sanders has been the most openly ambitious about wanting to run for President in the future, Warren has played a game of silent watcher. She quietly tries to jockey potential Democratic voters and has been more critical of her party’s inability to get key policies through Congress before the midterms despite their majorities in both houses.
Senator Warren has frequently said that she is solely focused on her reelection bid for her Senate seat in 2024, and generally dismisses Presidential speculation. However it is no secret that Warren does want to run for President, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if she was already laying the groundwork for a run. She has been fundraising well, she has become more vocal on progressive issues in recent months, and has been making her usual intra-party primary endorsements.
Warren has already ran one Presidential campaign, in which she gained a lot of support and made a name for herself in Democratic politics. If Warren runs again, she will very likely find herself in the top tier of candidates for her name recognition, her fundraising prowess, and her clear dominance in the left wing of the Democratic party.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
Governor Andy Beshear isn’t quite as well known outside of his home state of Kentucky compared to his potential rivals, however he has built a notable career as a Democrat in a deep red state.
While Beshear hasn’t won by big margins, he managed to get elected as Attorney General for two terms, and won his Governorship in 2019 in Kentucky, as a Democrat. For some context, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) won his reelection bid in 2020 with 57.8% of the vote, and Donald Trump won on the same ballot with 62%. Kentucky is a deep red state, one where most Democrats do not have any chance at winning most of the time. Beshear’s success in this state points to his appeal among Republican voters in the midwest, an increasingly Republican region of the country. Beshear’s appeal can prove to be valuable for Democrats as their 2024 prospects continue to rely on their performance in the midwest.
Beshear can generally be classified as a conservative Democrat, however he supports many signature Democrat policies such as fighting climate change and the Affordable Care Act. His popularity among Democrats rose during the COVID-19 pandemic when he introduced many strict mitigation measures, which weren’t common in most Republican states. Before President Biden announced that he would pick a woman as his running mate, many speculated that Beshear would be his pick because of his electoral successes in Kentucky.
Beshear has been very clear that he ins’t very interested in running for President in 2024, and is rather focused on his reelection bid for Governor in 2023. However, his career is one to watch for a potential Senate run, Cabinet role, and if not the Presidential nominee in 2024, then perhaps that nominee’s running mate.
Vice President Kamala Harris
There isn’t anybody more obvious to replace Joe Biden than Kamala Harris. She ran an unsuccessful bid for President in 2020 and at one point reached 2nd place in the polls. After her selection as Biden’s running mate in August of 2020, Harris’ Presidential prospects skyrocketed. She did her duty as the Biden campaign’s chief attacker, and earned wide praise and made history as the first Black and South Asian woman to be a Vice Presidential nominee. However she hasn’t fared as well after taking office.
Harris has struggled in her role mainly due to scrutinizing media coverage from her gaffes during interviews and speeches, the optics of instability in her office caused by a mass exodus of key staff members, her off script “word salads” among other things. In addition to those, blunders with her policy portfolio, most notably the Southern border migration crisis, the “root causes” of which President Biden tasked her with addressing in 2021, have also earned her sharp criticism. That paired with her abysmal 37% approval rating, set up a tough obstacle for a Harris 2024 run.
Despite that, the Vice President is the heir apparent to the Biden base as his number two, and her dominating name recognition compared to the rest of the field. Other than Buttigieg, Harris is the only person on this list to have run a national campaign for President, and a successful one for Vice President. She has access to key Democrat donors who helped Biden’s 2020 win. Recent reports also suggest that Harris has been been meeting with potential donors in private, a sign that the Vice President isn’t closing out her options.
Having been seen as the front-runner of the post-Biden era from the day she was announced as his running mate, Harris holds the keys to victory in the Democratic party. She has faced fierce scrutiny from the media, and has seen her political stock drop. However, Harris still has some time to reconcile with voters in time for the midterms, and boost her chances for 2024, because if she does run, it’s her race to lose.